Cruz Speaks to GOP Grassroots in Jackson
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Aug 11, 2015 -
Cruz began by complimenting his rivals and stating that the GOP had a wealth of talent on the debate stage last Thursday. He then moved into his speech which began where he left off with his closing statement at the debate. He said that if elected, he would do 4 things on Day One: (1) repeal President Obama’s illegal executive actions, (2) order the Department of Justice to investigate Planned Parenthood’s potential illegal activities, (3) protect religious liberty, and (4) rescind the executive agreement with Iran that implements the nuclear deal. On Day Two, he would order the U.S. to move its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, begin to rebuild the U.S. military, and order the Department of Education to end Common Core. In the remainder of his first year, he would secure the border, push for a flat tax, and repeal and replace Obamacare.
In the next part of his speech, he reinforced his outsider credentials by making the point that if you think everything is going well that he is not your candidate but that if you think that Washington is broke, then he is your candidate. He promised that he would be different from past candidates who made promises but did not keep them because he says what he means and will actually do it. He also made the argument that the establishment thought that he would not be successful but that he raised more hard money dollars than any other candidate in the first quarter. He credited his success to his grassroots support and compared the current time to the late 1970s. In the late 1970s, a liberal president, Jimmy Carter, pursued policies that led to slow economic growth and weakness on the international stage which led to a grassroots conservative rebellion that led Ronald Reagan into the presidency. By extension, there is now a grassroots rebellion against the current liberal president and this new grassroots movement will lead him to the presidency.
Finally, Cruz closed with an appeal to the American Dream. He talked about how his father was tortured and imprisoned by Batista in Cuba and that his father came to the US from Cuba with $100 sewed in his underwear. From there, he started a business and eventually became a pastor and provided for his family. Cruz then talked about how everywhere he went he found people with similar stories whether they were experiencing it this generation or one or two generations previously. His goal was to restore the American Dream for all people by enacting conservative policies.
Overall, Cruz spoke well befitting a debate champion and clearly connected with a lot of the audience. Instead of his usual aggressive manner, Cruz spoke in a more reasonable voice which you would expect since he is speaking to the grassroots or “his people.” This tone of voice probably helped him connect with the Republican activists and their disappointments with the party by implying that he was with them in their disappointment.
Second, Cruz made an appeal to social conservatives. His first point about repealing the illegal executive orders appealed to constitutional conservatives but the other three (investigate Planned Parenthood, protect religious liberty, and rip up the Iran deal (much of the Religious Right is pro-Israel) appealed to social conservatives. This appeal makes sense since he is in the socially conservative South and West TN is largely rural and socially conservative. It seems that he may think that he has the Tea Party support wrapped up and is making the play to be the social conservative candidate also to increase his chance of winning the nomination. He played less to the foreign policy conservatives and did not really discuss ISIS. The one group that he did not appeal to is the business wing. By not talking about what he could do for them, he reinforced his conservative bonafides but made it questionable that he can bring the party together. There was a huge environmental disaster in CO due to mistakes by the EPA which provided an obvious way to connect with the establishment but he let is pass.
Third, he basically told the crowd what they wanted to hear. He hit the red meat issues for conservatives and the crowd ate it up. That is a good message for the primaries but that does not prepare Cruz for the general election. The GOP has lost the popular vote 5 out of the last 6 presidential elections for a reason and his policies are not going to connect to typical non-Republican voting groups which makes his ability to win questionable.
However to his credit, he did try to take on the electability issue by mentioning his fundraising success. The problem is that he raised the most money in the first quarter because he announced first and had more time to raise money. Even with that, Rubio, Bush, and Carson outraised him on a per day fundraising basis. And while he bragged about the low average donation ($81) to indicate grassroots support, Carson, Paul, and Rubio had smaller average donations which indicates strong small donor support. The second quarter of fundraising will be key because the first quarter is the easy money because you have hit all of those who truly believe in you. The remaining quarters are ones where he has to convince the less committed to support him. Left unsaid, but what I will mention, is that his SuperPac raised the second most money but he doesn’t want to mention that because that tells the grassroots that he may not need their money and he has some rich supporters ponying up big bucks. Regardless, the top fundraisers on the GOP side are, in order, Bush, Cruz, and Rubio so Cruz has to feel good that he will have the money to compete.
Fourth, Cruz ignored his biggest liability – his ability to get things done. Most candidates try to identify their weakness and explain why it is not a problem but Cruz did not do that. He is not well-liked in DC and he cannot get Republicans to do what he wants. When they have pursued his strategy (like the government shutdown), it backfired on the party. When he has taken high profile issues, such as opposition to the Export-Import Bank, he can’t even get a majority of the Senate to support him. Cruz has no history of working with people to accomplish something and his “courageous conservative” agenda will require that. Even if one runs as the outsider, one becomes the ultimate insider when one takes the oath. Moreover, he argues for repealing and replacing Obamacare but he is not identified with any policy to do so. In fact, he is not really identified with any policy proposal to secure the border, replace Obamacare, or much else. While he may not have the background or experience to address this liability, he will need to work on providing that answer.