The Great, the Good, and the Bad News from SC and NV
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Feb 21, 2016 -
Saturday's South Carolina primary was great news for Donald Trump, good news for Marco Rubio, and bad news for Ted Cruz. Nevada was a sigh of relief for Hillary Clinton and suggests that she will be in better shape after Super Tuesday.
Trump clearly had the best night among all the candidates. First, he won. His support was slightly off poll predictions but a win is a win. Second, not enough candidates are dropping out for another candidate to consolidate enough support to defeat him. Trump has always had a ceiling of support of around 35%. The longer it takes the “anybody but Trump” (ABT) camp to coalesce the better it is for him. Jeb Bush dropping out should help increase Rubio’s support but he would probably overtake Trump if Kasich and Carson dropped out. Cruz would probably split Carson’s support with Rubio which would increase his support but still be short of Trump’s 35%.
The split field helps Trump, third, in the delegate math. The nominee will be the one with the most delegates. Due to the proportional allocation of delegates before March 15 and the way some states divide delegates by congressional district, a Trump plurality, gains him a hefty share of the delegates while the remaining delegates are split among several candidates. If the ABT camp does not consolidate soon enough, Trump can gain all delegates from “winner take all” delegate states with just 35% of the vote. At some point, Trump will get a delegate lead that makes it very difficult for someone to overtake him.
Turning to the South and Super Tuesday, remember that while Trump may have a 35% ceiling nationwide, that ceiling will vary in differing parts of the country. Since the South has a larger working class population, Trump's ceiling may actually be higher in the South. Thus, Super Tuesday with its larger working class population sets up Trump to do very well.
Fourth, the more that Trump “wins,” the more the psychology of voters changes. If Trump sweeps Super Tuesday while Cruz has 1 victory and Rubio none, Trump looks like a winner and a bandwagon effect may develop where voters move toward the perceived nominee. The bad news for Trump is that a lot of people don’t like him which will make it difficult for everyone to rally to him. Moreover, recent deciders in IA, NH, and SC have predominantly gone for someone other than Trump. This fact reinforces the idea that Trump has a ceiling of support. The good news for Trump is that he doesn't need everyone to rally around him to win the nomination. He just needs enough. If enough people move toward Trump because he has the momentum, he can secure the nomination.
While Trump had a great night, Rubio had a very good night. First, he rebounded from a dismal 5th place in New Hampshire. He showed that he could take a punch and get back up. Coming in second (even if by less than a 1000 votes) is a big deal. Remember that he had been endorsed by the powerful South Carolina trio of Senator Tim Scott, Governor Nikki Hailey, and Congressman Trey Gowdy, chair of the Benghazi Committee. If he did not do well with that line-up behind him in South Carolina, questions of his viability would have remained. The fact that Cruz and he did best among late deciders suggest these endorsements mattered.
Second, we are probably about to see “the party decide.” Political scientists have noted that the one that the party establishment rallies around almost always wins. The idea is that the party is a coalition and endorsements signal voters that a candidate is acceptable to one's faction. Up to this point, the establishment hasn’t rallied to one candidate. Rubio was on the cusp of doing so after Iowa but Chris Christie’s haranguing him at the debate three days before New Hampshire cost him. Rubio’s better than expected showing combined with the endorsement of Scott and Hailey along with Bush dropping out should lead to a surge in endorsements and money flowing to him. While the establishment support will hurt him with some activists, most voters will see their officials endorse Rubio which sends a cue that Rubio can win.
But will the party decide too late? Rubio’s biggest problem is that there is not an obvious state that he can win on Super Tuesday which creates two problems. First, doing well and collecting delegates is important but he needs a win at some point. If he gets a bunch of endorsements and doesn’t do well, that blunts the impact of the endorsements. Second, the SEC primary is filled with more conservative Southern states of which very few fit an establishment candidate considering the current mood of the GOP primary electorate. Rubio needs to turn his potential into victories or Trump will continue to win primaries and delegates.
Now we turn to Cruz who had a bad night because multiple factors came together to hurt his overall strategy and the psychology behind Cruz being the best ABT candidate. First, all the polls showed him in second and he came in third (even if barely). Second, he claimed that after New Hampshire that it was a two person race between Trump and him. Rubio’s second hurts that claim. Third, Cruz’s campaign was based on him winning the evangelical and populist/outside vote. Saturday night, Trump won both groups. The fact that Ben Carson, another strong competitor for evangelicals, remained in the race makes it more difficult to consolidate that vote. Psychologically, all of these factors is a major blow.
The simple fact is that Cruz, just like Trump, has a ceiling. His campaign is based on rallying conservatives to his side. The fact that they are not is a problem. He had hoped to coalesce these groups to him to win enough votes on Super Tuesday to have a large enough delegate count or even a delegate lead that would cause the party to either rally to him or see him as the only viable ABT candidate. With his less than expected showing among evangelicals and those looking for an outsider, Cruz may not do as well on March 1. After that, there are fewer states that fit his profile. For these reasons, the Cruz campaign needs major victories on Super Tuesday or his campaign is likely to fall short.
Finally, Hillary Clinton is breathing a sigh of relief. Like Trump, a win is a win. And after the beating she took in New Hampshire, this win was important. The problem is that she expected to do well among minorities. However, most reports suggest that Sanders did better among Latinos. However, Clinton won African-Americas by about 50 points. With South Carolina and Super Tuesday approaching, Southern states with large black populations who will make up close to half of the Democratic electorate should give her multiple victories and by large margins. The multiple victories should help her momentum while the delegates that she wins will make it difficult for Sanders to catch up.