Kelsy, Kustoff Early Favorites in 8th CD
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Apr 18, 2016 -
With thirteen Republicans fighting to represent West Tennessee in Congress, the 8th Congressional District should see a highly contested race where the nominee could win with 25-30% of the vote.
Upfront, most political analysts believe that the two leading candidates are State Senator Brian Kelsey of Germantown and former U.S. Attorney David Kustoff. Kelsey starts as the early favorite. He has been visiting local party leaders in the district for years, can transfer $136,000 from his State Senate campaign, and has a base of support in Shelby County. In this current anti-establishment environment, his sponsorship of a constitutional amendment to prohibit the income tax and his leading the opposition to expand Obamacare in Tennessee fits the mood of the Republican electorate.
His strongest anti-establishment competitors will probably be Dr. George Flinn, who can self-fund his campaign, and Shelby County Treasurer Tom Leatherwood. However, Flinn is a perennial candidate who never wins which raises questions about his competitiveness and there are questions about whether Leatherwood can raise sufficient funds to compete.
The other potential problems Kelsey faces are that he is a career politician in an anti-politician environment, there are too many Republicans splitting the vote in Shelby County, and he may be too “Germantown” to identify with rural voters who make up 60% of the GOP primary electorate.
Due to Kelsey’s alienating of the Nashville establishment, Kustoff begins as the clear establishment choice for Congress. He ran George W. Bush’s campaign in Tennessee in 2000 and 2004, has strong support from Senators Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker’s organizations, and is the former law partner of Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland. Consequently, he has connections all across the district, should raise the most money, and will have the money to communicate his message to voters.
His primary problem is that being the establishment choice in this electoral environment is not ideal. Moreover, the “establishment” presidential candidates only took 27% of the district vote in the March GOP primary which provides him a lower initial base of support. His biggest competition for establishment support probably comes from Shelby County Mayor Mark Luttrell but Luttrell can only transfer $44,000 from his mayoral campaign and he seems to be starting the race more slowly as demonstrated by not even having an active website. Finally, Kustoff needs to improve his ability to connect with rural voters because he usually came in 3rd or 4th in rural counties when running for Congress in 2002.
In West Tennessee, Jackson’s Brad Greer hopes to win by consolidating the West Tennessee vote while the Shelby County candidates divide up the Shelby County vote. Greer has been involved with Republican politics for years and has usually supported the business friendly candidate. These connections helped him raise a surprising $103,000 in the first quarter. Yet, the fact that he won only 23% of the Madison County GOP Straw Poll suggests he has a lot of work ahead to consolidate the West Tennessee vote.
Finally, Union University’s Hunter Baker is running to defend religious liberty. He hopes to use the goodwill toward Union in West Tennessee to connect with and mobilize pastors and evangelicals. The questions about his campaign are whether religious liberty is salient enough to voters and a campaign that relies heavily on social media can be effective.
This article is a slightly revised version of a column that appeared in the April 18th edition of The Jackson Sun