Bredeson, Blackburn Vie for Senate Seat
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Feb 28, 2018 - With several recent polls showing Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn trailing or only slightly ahead of former Governor Phil Bredesen in the U.S. Senate race, some Republicans are worried that Blackburn will lose and have encouraged Senator Bob Corker to reenter the race. While Blackburn is a weaker general election candidate than the more moderate Corker, Corker is unlikely to win the GOP nomination. Thus, Blackburn is the likely GOP nominee.
Polling nine months before an election is basically a measure of name recognition. Bredesen’s good poll numbers are due to generally 8 years of positive media coverage because he was an excellent governor. This positive coverage may also explain why a pro-Blackburn poll finds that Bredesen has higher favorability numbers.
Blackburn’s numbers are fine considering that the location of her Congressional district has led to media coverage in only 2 of Tennessee’s six media markets. Her frequent cable news appearances don’t really help with most Tennesseans because only 2-3% of Americans watch cable news. The important polls are the polls this fall when Tennesseans start paying attention.
Bredesen has a clear playbook for the election. He will run a personality based campaign as a problem solving mayor and governor who worked well with both parties in Tennessee and who can do the same in Washington. He will downplay partisan differences by emphasizing his agreement with popular Republican ideas and sticking to the safe Democratic issues of education and health care. He will try to reach suburban voters uncomfortable with Trump’s personality, attack deficits to appeal to fiscally conservative Republicans, and attack Washington Republicans for leaving rural areas behind.
Bredesen still faces some problems which makes him the underdog. First, he has not run a competitive race since 2002 and may not be campaign ready. Second, Tennessee has changed since his initial election. When Obama became president, Bredesen’s popularity faded from the low 70s to mid-50s. This drop suggests that partisan change dented his popularity. Third while Tennesseans may trust Bredesen on state issues, Tennesseans have a much stronger preference for Republicans on federal issues. Finally, national Democrats are unlikely to invest heavily in the race because they see other races as more winnable. National Democrats are happy Bredesen is running because it drains Republican money that could go to other competitive races.
Blackburn will run a partisan campaign because Tennessee is a very Republican state. If she gets Republicans to turn out and vote, she will win. She will emphasize her support and loyalty to President Trump and the conservative agenda. She will emphasize tax cuts, social issues, immigration, and national security to draw distinctions with Bredesen while using Bredesen’s contributions to President Obama and Hillary Clinton to claim that he will support the Schumer/Pelosi agenda.
Blackburn’s major problem is that she is a polarizing force among Democrats and Republicans. Her conservatism and vocal support of Trump will mobilize Democrats in this political environment. Within the party, the establishment believes she is too conservative and unwilling to compromise, more interested in media appearances than legislating, and not a team player. Since the establishment usually funds Republican candidates, their doubts could be problematic financially for Blackburn while also depressing overall Republican turnout. However, her conservatism and notoriety gives her access to national conservative money while party identification in this polarized environment should be enough to mobilize most Republicans.
This column originally appeared in the Feb. 26th edition of The Jackson Sun