Polarized But Divided Parties

By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science

Dec 10, 2021 -

Even though the two parties are polarized, a recent PEW Research Center study shows that the parties’ electoral coalition have differences that impact our current and future politics.

First, Democrats are united on policy but divided by strategy. Historically, Democratic unity is rare. As humorist Will Rogers once quipped, “I’m not a member of an organized party. I’m a Democrat.” Yet, three-quarters of the four major Democratic factions agree on the role of government, expanding the safety net, social liberalism, addressing economic and racial injustice, and combatting climate change. This unity is why Congressional Democrats, with such narrow majorities, are voting in lockstep to pass President Biden’s Build Back Better plan. The disagreement is how to do it. The Progressive Left wants to spend more than the other three factions while the Progressive and Outsider Left seeks more radical changes to end racism. Since Establishment Liberals and the moderate Democratic Mainstays are almost twice the size of the progressive factions, Democrats are pursuing an incremental strategy.

Second, Republicans are divided by policy and personality. While Republicans are united on smaller government, a strong military, and rejecting the need to do more to address racism, they are divided on many other issues. The working-class Populist Right rejects free market orthodoxy, the younger, moderate Ambivalent Right and pro-business Committee Conservatives are more positive toward immigration and more supportive of working with allies in foreign policy, and religious Faith and Flag Conservatives are much more conservative on same sex marriage and government support of religion than the other three groups.

While slight majorities of Faith and Flag Conservatives and the Populist Right want Donald Trump to run in 2024, Committed Conservatives are lukewarm toward Trump while the Ambivalent Right wants Trump to leave politics. The major problem for Republicans is that GOP elites represent the most conservative factions while most Republican voters are more moderate and closer to the Stressed Sideliners who are the swing voters in elections. Promoting very conservative economic policies and nominating Trump may make it more difficult for Republicans to remain united and win in 2024.

Third, the highly educated, active white liberals of the Progressive Left may dominate Democratic discourse but don’t speak for most Democrats on contentious issues. Compared to other Democratic factions, the Progressive Left is significantly more critical of our nation, supportive of Democratic Socialists, favorable to reducing the U.S. military, liberal on race than racial minorities, and likely to believe structural forces, more than individual effort, determine individual success. Even on defunding the police, most Democrats support more spending on police.

Fourth, Republicans will moderate over time while Democrats will become more uniformly liberal. Looking at age cohorts, the oldest Republicans are the most conservative and the youngest ones the most moderate on economics which should see the GOP move to the center on economics. For Democrats, the oldest Democrats are the most moderate while the youngest Democrats are the most liberal which should see Democrats move further to the left on all issues.

Finally, cultural issues will be the new wedge issue. The decline of Faith and Flag Conservatives among young Republicans should reduce the importance of social issues like abortion. Instead, the rise of the Populist Right should make issues of personal and national identity the major dividing line between the parties, especially since the swing-voting Stressed Sideliners are more conservative on these issues.

This column appeared on The Jackson Sun online edition on December 10, 2021