Trump is the GOP
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
May 28, 2026 -
In 2016, Donald Trump was the outsider whom the party establishment tried to stop from winning the nomination. Today, Trump owns the Republican Party lock, stock, and barrel, as his endorsements have defeated Congressman Thomas Massie and Senators Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn for insufficient loyalty. This remarkable transformation occurred because Trump and the now-defunct Tea Party remade the GOP into an anti-elitist, reactionary party committed to scorched-earth tactics.
For decades, conservatives have blamed Republican defeats on the “establishment’s” focus on winning over ideology. They argued that if Republicans ran on a distinctly conservative platform, they would win easily. Consequently, they blamed Republican losses on moderate candidates or the establishment not backing the conservative choice.
In rejecting the establishment, some conservatives began to reject Ronald Reagan’s fusion conservatism that combined social conservatism, libertarian economics (e.g., free markets and limited government), and U.S. leadership of the free world. This began with Pat Buchanan’s presidential campaigns in the 1990s but did not become ascendant until Barack Obama became president.
Obama’s environmental, health care, immigration, transgender, and social liberal policies made Tea Party supporters anxious that Obama threatened their way of life. This led to a reactionary conservatism that sought to reverse everything liberals stood for and explains Trump’s aggressive executive actions.
Fearing an “existential threat,” the Tea Party pursued scorched-earth tactics to take over the Republican Party. They sought to join local parties to hold officials accountable and to primary those who did not put principles first. They also advocated more radical policies and promoted them on Fox News and social media to shift the party’s sense of what was acceptable. If parties did not adopt their ideas, they engaged in hostile takeovers.
Trump’s 2016 nomination contributed to the ongoing populist takeover. Most Americans are inattentive to politics, so they take cues from others. Trump stepped in as a cue-giver using social media and his access to Fox News to amplify his populist message on immigration, protectionism, national sovereignty, and non-interventionism in foreign policy. Consequently, many Republicans began adopting these policy positions. Today, Republicans associate Trump’s positions with conservatism.
Slowly, Trump and the Tea Party remade the party in their image. State parties adopted more radical platforms. They censured officials to express their displeasure at their votes. They pursued closed primaries to make sure only the “right people” voted. Louisiana even adopted a new primary system to defeat Senator Cassidy because he voted to convict Trump after January 6th.
Trump consolidates his power via endorsements. Previous presidents have sought to endorse candidates in competitive races to help the party. Trump endorses more frequently, in primaries, and in Republican-leaning constituencies to shape the party’s direction and increase his control. He is acting more like a party boss because controlling the nomination allows him to control who is and is not in the party and what the party stands for.
His endorsement is powerful in primaries because it increases a candidate’s vote by 16%, the candidate’s campaign fundraising, and the chance of winning by 30%. This success signals ambitious Republican politicians that the key to success is running as a Trump Republican. This strategy has also created a faction of loyal Republican officials who will do whatever he wants.
The only real threat to Trump’s opinion leadership is Fox News. A candidate with a higher percentage of Fox News appearances leads to a 12% increase in primary votes. The power of Fox is why Trump threatened to tell his supporters to watch Newsmax or One America News after the 2020 elections for saying he lost the election, and why he attacks Fox News hosts who criticize him.
The problem for Republicans is that what is good for Trump is not always good for Republicans. Trump’s endorsement hurts Republicans in the general election, especially in swing states, because he backs bad fits for the district and generates more negative reactions. Nominating weak candidates forces the GOP to spend in races it would otherwise win easily. The purging of insufficiently loyal Republicans shrinks the party by signaling that one must approve of everything Trump does to be a Republican. A smaller party is more ideologically coherent, but that coherence can produce groupthink, poor decision-making, and a less electorally appealing party.
So, despite claims that Trump is losing MAGA, remember, “President Trump is MAGA and MAGA is President Trump.”