Finney's Future
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Aug 12, 2013 -
Thirty years ago, State Senator Lowe Finney would have been an obvious candidate for Congress or governor. Today, his political career is endangered by changes in Tennessee politics and within the Democratic Party.
The most obvious obstacle for Finney’s advancement is Tennessee’s move to a reliable Republican state. This change can be most readily seen in the change in his district. In the early 2000s, the district had a fairly even partisan balance. But as the Democratic Party became more liberal, the district changed from a +4 Republican advantage in 2000 to +18 by 2012.
Moreover in contrast to 2010, Finney faces a strong challenger, Republican Ed Jackson, who has worked the district for a year, has the support of the Republican establishment, and will be well-funded.
Even if he won, as a Democrat in a Senate dominated by Republicans, his probability of enacting major policy change and stopping legislation he opposed is limited. In the last session when the two parties differed on a bill, Finney was only in the majority twice or 6% of the time. Finally, the Finneys are in the process of adopting a child so staying closer to home makes sense. So for political, policy, and personal reasons, retiring is prudent.
The change in the Democratic Party from a rural, economically populist, socially conservative party to a more urban, liberal party also complicates his ambitions. To win statewide, a Democrat needs to run as a moderate, pro-business candidate but that profile makes it difficult to win a Democratic primary. These competing pressures may explain some of his legislative behavior.
Finney runs as a moderate but this past session he voted with his party 94% of the time when majorities of the two parties opposed each other, which is 12% greater than the Democratic average.
On social issues like guns, abortion, and immigration, he votes the conservative position on final passage. Yet, he also votes with Democrats on procedural issues and for some Democratic amendments designed to kill bills. In essence, he votes against a bill before voting for it.
Third, Finney balances votes that business dislikes, such as opposing tort reform, worker’s compensation reform, charter schools and tenure reform, with votes that business supports such as opposing a statewide income tax and supporting Race to the Top education reform.
Now most expect Finney to run for Mayor of Jackson if Jerry Gist retires. With his name recognition, base of support in Jackson, and $62,000 in leftover campaign receipts, Finney is the prohibitive favorite.
And the mayoralty could actually help a future run for higher office. As mayor, he could avoid most ideological issues and focus on nuts-and-bolts issues like crime, economic development, roads, and balanced budgets. The pragmatic problem solving behavior of mayors is what many Tennesseans find attractive and explains, in part, the recent statewide victories of Phil Bredeson, Bill Haslam, and Bob Corker.
The disadvantage is that the Jackson media market and the size of the West Tennessee voting bloc in a Democratic primary, vis-à-vis the Metro areas, positions him for a Congressional, not a statewide, campaign. Yet, Finney would be more effective, happier, and electorally secure as governor than a Democrat in Nancy Pelosi’s House Democratic Caucus.
This article originally appeared in the Oct. 11th edition of The Jackson Sun