Red To Its Roots
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Aug 8, 2014 -
While most media coverage of yesterday’s elections is focusing on Lamar Alexander’s Senate seat, the more significant races are whether John Mehr is the new the Madison County Sheriff, Ann Strong is Crockett County Mayor, Kyle Atkins is a Circuit Court Judge, and Tennesseans retained the Supreme Court Justices. These races matter because they will tell us whether Tennessee will become a one party state.
Last summer, the Tennessee Republican Party declared its intent to make Tennessee “red to its roots” by extending GOP dominance from the state and federal level to the local level. Even though Republicans win most congressional and state legislative seats, Democrats still basically control local government outside East Tennessee. Yet if the GOP can dominate county commissions, district attorneys, and judgeships, the transformation of Tennessee to a Republican stronghold will be complete and Democrats will be relegated to semi-permanent minority status.
Winning local government positions are important for two reasons. First, local government has more impact on our everyday lives as they provide the services we use the most like roads, education, sanitation, law enforcement, etc. Controlling local government allows the GOP to experiment with and prove that its policies regarding taxes, schools, economic development, and policing work. If successful, these policies will spread across the state and country.
Second, local government offices are stepping stones for higher offices because office holders develop the political skills, fundraising base, and name recognition that are helpful for winning higher office. And if the GOP wins most local offices, the party is likely to field better candidates than Democrats which increases the GOP’s chance of winning.
GOP dominance at the local level also increases the chance that ambitious young people will see the Republican Party as the best route for a successful political career. Take local judicial candidate Kyle Atkins. As the son-in-law of former Democratic Congressman John Tanner, he would have most likely run for office as a Democrat ten years ago. In fact, Atkins ran for judge two years ago with most of the white Democratic establishment behind him. After losing in that six person race, Atkins ran as a Republican this time.
This political reality makes these local and judicial races important because GOP success signals potential candidates that an upwardly mobile political future lies solely within the GOP.
While Tennessee may become more Republican at the local level, this change to a one-party state will bring difficulties. First, the GOP will become less ideologically cohesive. Currently, practically all Tennessee Republican officials are conservatives. However, a state where most office holders are of one party will automatically bring in more people with different political beliefs.
When you add most Tennesseans voting in Republican primaries, the primary electorate will include more moderate and center right voters which will lead to more moderate candidates running and winning primaries. Soon enough, there will be distinct ideological factions within the party leading to a true civil war.
How well the party can contain the damage from a fight will depend on how many factions arise, the number of litmus tests that arise to define who is a Republican, the role outside ideological groups and social media play in demanding fidelity to their cause, and the ability of factions to win office frequently enough to not bolt the party.
This article originally appeared in the August 8th edition of The Jackson Sun